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Friday, 3rd January 2014

2014 Economic Outlook

Source: Wells Fargo

From Executive Summary:

Sustained subpar growth, low inflation, Fed easing: repetitive, yes, but these three themes have been a useful guideline to the economic outlook for the past three years and underlie our view for 2014. Sustained, below-trend economic growth reflects caution on both the part of consumers and business decision makers over the past few years. For 2014, growth should improve to 2.4 percent, with much of the improvement in the private sector. We expect a modest gain in consumer spending along with stronger investment in business equipment, structures and housing. In contrast, government spending will remain a drag. The labor market is expected to improve slightly. We look for monthly gains of 180,000–190,000 jobs on average in 2014, along with a modest decline in the unemployment rate below 7 percent. Meanwhile, inflation is set to remain low and not a source of concern to investors or the Federal Reserve. Our outlook is for a 1.6 percent rise in the Fed’s benchmark inflation indicator in 2014, the PCE deflator, compared to an increase of 1.1 percent in 2013. The expected rate of inflation for 2014 remains below the 2 percent Fed benchmark and, therefore, comfortably below any flash point for action from the Federal Reserve.

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Having begun his career in academic libraries, Adrian Janes has subsequently worked extensively in public libraries, chiefly in enquiry work as an Information Services librarian. In this role he has had particular responsibility for information from both the UK Government and the European Union. He wrote a detailed report on sources for the latter which was published by FreePint in 2007, and has contributed articles to FreePint and ResourceShelf. He is involved in training in information literacy and the use of online reference resources.

A Contributing Editor to DocuTicker, he also write reviews for Pennyblackmusic.

Adrian can be reached at adrian.janes@freepint.com

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