Friday, 7th September 2012
What is the near-term global economic outlook? An interim assessment
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
The global economy has weakened since spring, led by developments in the euro area where recession is again taking hold. Economies both inside and outside the OECD area have been adversely affected by the euro area crisis through trade and confidence channels.
Ongoing balance-sheet adjustments and renewed declines in consumer confidence have kept household demand soft in many countries. Business investment growth has also been slowing, except in Japan where post-disaster reconstruction continues. In the euro area, weakness in the periphery is spilling over to the core.
According to forward-looking indicators, the loss of momentum at the G7 level may persist through the latter half of this year, with the recession in the euro area and associated trade and confidence headwinds enduring. The United States is an exception with comparatively stronger growth reflecting inter alia progress in balance-sheet adjustment and improving housing market conditions.
With the euro area crisis still the most important risk for the global economy, further policy action is needed to instil more confidence in the monetary union.
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