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Sunday, 19th February 2012

The Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies

From the publication web page:

We have updated and greatly expanded our analysis of the metrics that can cause political instability and unrest in the Gulf and Middle East.

The trends in demographics, economics, internal security and justice systems, governance, and social change show how much other factors affect both the region and individual nations, and will remain sources of violence and instability until they are dealt with. They show how basic data on the size of given economies, per capita incomes, populations, and population growth rates also contribute to instability. Finally, they illustrate the critical role of governance, social change, and justice systems in shaping and dealing with each nation’s problems.

This briefing serves another purpose as well: it illustrates the severe limits to the availability and quality of the data on many key aspects of stability. As such, it is often a warning that countries, intelligence experts, members of international institutions, NGOs, and area experts need to do a far better job of developing basic data on the causes of instability.

+ Link to full report (PDF; 3.03 MB)



Peggy Garvin, of Garvin Information Consulting, is the author of United States Government Internet Directory (Bernan Press) and Real World Research Skills, 2009 (TheCapitol.Net). In her 20 years in the information business, Peggy has managed electronic information products and services in a variety of environments, including commercial publishing, e-commerce, law firms, and the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress. Peggy's work has been recognized with the 2011 SLA Dow Jones Leadership Award. She has a Masters of Library Science degree from Syracuse University School of Information Studies.

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