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Sunday, 16th October 2011

UK: Child and working-age poverty from 2010 to 2020

Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies (UK)

This Commentary presents forecasts of relative and absolute income poverty in the UK among children and working-age adults for each year between 2010-11 and 2015-16, and for 2020-21, using a static microsimulation model augmented with forecasts of key economic and demographic characteristics...

This exercise is necessarily subject to uncertainties and limitations. Macroeconomic forecasts such as those we make use of here are always highly uncertain, and this is especially true at present; the data available do not enable us to model all of the tax and benefit changes coming in over the next few years precisely, and we cannot fully account for the impacts of behavioural changes that result from tax and benefit reforms; and the underlying survey data used are, of course, subject to sampling error. However, the results should provide a useful guide to what might happen to poverty under current government policies.

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Having begun his career in academic libraries, Adrian Janes has subsequently worked extensively in public libraries, chiefly in enquiry work as an Information Services librarian. In this role he has had particular responsibility for information from both the UK Government and the European Union. He wrote a detailed report on sources for the latter which was published by FreePint in 2007, and has contributed articles to FreePint and ResourceShelf. He is involved in training in information literacy and the use of online reference resources.

A Contributing Editor to DocuTicker, he also write reviews for Pennyblackmusic.

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